Report HCSS warns: ‘Europe risks fuel shortages in wartime’

The Netherlands and Europe are at risk of severe fuel shortages in the event of a large-scale conflict. By 2030, the EU will already be dependent on imports for half of its kerosene supply, and without additional measures this could rise to as much as 72 per cent in a crisis situation by 2040. This is the conclusion of a new HCSS report commissioned by VEMOBIN, the Dutch association for refiners and industrial energy suppliers. “The existing Dutch refining capacity, and its expansion with increased biofuel production, is crucial for the security of fuel supply of the European economy and defence.”

Concerning

What is the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on the security of fuel supply, and what does this mean for the armed forces and for society at large? The researchers at HCSS have carefully mapped out the answers to these questions. And those answers are quite alarming: if current policies continue, total European production capacity could decline by approximately 65 percent by 2040. Due to the reduction in refining capacity in Europe (−20% since 2009) and the slow development of alternative fuels, a structural problem is emerging: in times of crisis, demand for fuel cannot be met quickly enough by supply. This leads particularly to vulnerabilities in terms of military deployability, according to the researchers.

Import dependency increases

The main bottlenecks lie in aviation fuel (kerosene). By 2040, the EU may only be able to meet around one fifth of its own demand for aviation fuel through European production. This has direct consequences for air operations of the armed forces, and—via NATO’s Single Fuel Concept—for other military vehicles as well. In addition, Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on imports. By 2030, the EU will already rely on imports for half of its kerosene supply, and without additional measures this could rise to 72 percent in a crisis situation by 2040. This increases vulnerability to disruptions in international trade routes and geopolitical tensions. “Europe cannot assume that fuels will always be available everywhere in times of crisis,” says HCSS researcher Irina Patrahau. “Without structural changes, fuel logistics could become a bottleneck for European defence.”

Central role of the Netherlands

For the Netherlands, the risks are greater than the European average. As a hub within the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) region and as a NATO Host Nation, the Netherlands plays a central role in the supply, storage and distribution of fuels. In a large-scale conflict, up to 35 percent of kerosene demand and 13 percent of demand for petrol and diesel may not be met. “If we are serious about deterrence, we must be serious about fuel supply for our armed forces,” says Nico Tak, retired three-star general and strategic advisor at HCSS. “This report once again shows that deterrence and defence are efforts that concern society as a whole.”

Recommendations

The report makes five recommendations to address fuel shortages in times of crisis:

Appoint a national coordinator for fuel security
Safeguard critical refining capacity
Strengthen alternative fuel value chains
Better protect vital infrastructure
Enhance cooperation between the EU and NATO in the areas of stockpiling and crisis planning

Crucial refining capacity

“This report demonstrates that the Netherlands’ existing refining capacity, as well as its expansion through increased biofuel production, is crucial for ensuring fuel supply security for both the European economy and defence in the event of war. This research makes that crystal clear, to the extent that the Iran crisis had not already done so,” said director Jan-Willem van den Beukel on behalf of VEMOBIN. “The government and the House of Representatives would do well to adopt these five recommendations and—both nationally and at the European level—develop and protect this vital energy infrastructure against fragmented policies and unfair competition.”

Please read the full report here.

Concerning

What impact do rising geopolitical tensions have on fuel supply security, and what does this mean for the armed forces and for society as a whole? The researchers at HCSS have carefully mapped out the answers to these questions. And those answers are quite concerning: if current policy continues, total European production capacity could decline by around 65 per cent by 2040. Due to the reduction in refining capacity in Europe (-20% since 2009) and the slow development of alternative fuels, a structural problem is emerging: in times of crisis, fuel demand cannot be met quickly enough by supply. This results in vulnerability, particularly in terms of military operational capability, according to the researchers.

Import dependency increases

The main bottlenecks concern aviation fuel (kerosene). By 2040, the EU may only be able to meet around one fifth of its own demand for aviation fuel through domestic production. This has direct consequences for military air operations, and—through the NATO Single Fuel Concept—for other military vehicles as well. In addition, Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on imports. By 2030, the EU will already rely on imports for half of its kerosene supply, and without additional measures this could rise to 72 per cent in a crisis situation by 2040. This increases vulnerability to disruptions in international trade routes and geopolitical tensions. “Europe cannot assume that fuels will always be available everywhere in times of crisis,” HCSS researcher Irina Patrahau said. “Without structural changes, fuel logistics could become a bottleneck for European defence.”

By 2030, the EU will already be dependent on imports for half of its kerosene supply

Pivotal role of the Netherlands

For the Netherlands, the risks are greater than the European average. As a hub in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region and as a NATO Host Nation, the Netherlands play a pivotal role in the supply, storage and distribution of fuels. In a large-scale conflict, up to 35 per cent of kerosene demand and 13 per cent of demand for petrol and diesel could go unmet. “If we take deterrence seriously, we must take fuel supply for our armed forces seriously,” Nico Tak stated, retired three-star general and strategic adviser to HCSS. “This report once again shows that deterrence and defence are efforts that concern society as a whole.”

Measures

HCSS recommends five measures to counter fuel shortages in times of crisis:

Appoint a national coordinator for fuel security
Preserve critical refining capacity
Strengthen alternative fuel supply chains
Improve the protection of vital infrastructure
Enhance cooperation between the EU and NATO on stockpiling and crisis planning

Crucial refining capacity

“This report shows that the existing Dutch refining capacity, and its expansion with increased biofuel production, is crucial for the fuel supply security of the European economy and defence in the event of war. This research makes that abundantly clear—if the Iran crisis had not already done so,” director Jan-Willem van den Beukel on behalf of VEMOBIN responded. “The government and the House of Representatives would be well advised to adopt these five recommendations and—both nationally and at European level—to develop and protect this vital energy infrastructure from fragmented policy and unfair competition.”

The full report can be found here.

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